Glassnode and Delphi Digital confirmed the forecast for the expected strong change in the price of bitcoin in the near future.
According to two unrelated research firms, Glassnode and Delphi Digital, bitcoin has outperformed the global FX market. and global equity and bond markets in the important metric of volatility: for investors, the global currency, equity and debt market now appears to be in a stormy situation while the bitcoin market is in the doldrums.
As Glassnode analysts write in their “The Week On-chain” review, “The past few weeks have been marked by unusually low volatility in the bitcoin price, in contrast to the global classical financial market, where rising interest rates, high inflation, and a strong dollar have created chaotic indicator movements.”
It is worth noting that indeed by now an unprecedentedly high number of central banks in the world (more than 90) pursue a policy of increasing the cost of credit, which in a situation of fading economic recovery means a cumulative effect in the form of movement of the global economy towards stagflation, that is, negative dynamics against a background of high rates of growth in producer prices and retail trade.
Delphi Digital points out that the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) indicator shows that “there is an increase in the likelihood of a strong bitcoin price move.” Historically, a BBWP value above 90 or below 5 has indicated the start of a strong move in the bitcoin price, but now the BBWP is below 5. According to Delphi Digital, a BBWP out of the 5-90 point range between Q2 2017 and now has seen the bitcoin price either rise 204% or fall 51% on average.
It is also worth noting that the Bollinger Band indicator, the Bollinger Bands, for bitcoin has now declined to its lowest level since 2020. Similar reductions in this indicator have been observed five times over the past two years. In four of them, the price of bitcoin declined 16% over 20 days, and in one case it rose to a new all-time high of $69,045,000, which occurred on November 10 last year.
Based on Delphi Digital data, as well as Bollinger Bands analysis, it turns out that in terms of quantitative scenarios, it is more likely that bitcoin price will go down in the near future, but in case of growth, the cryptocurrency #1 will see a much higher rebound compared to a possible fall.