On October 13, the U.S. Labor Department will release data on inflation in the U.S. economy.
Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that the observed low volatility in bitcoin prices will begin to increase on October 13, when the U.S. Department of Labor releases data on inflation in the U.S. economy.
In addition, before the end of the week, US authorities will present the latest data on labor market dynamics and retail sales, which, together with information on changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market.
The next big thing is early November, when the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise the benchmark rate by 0.75%: the probability of that at Chicago’s CME Group when trading interest rate futures contracts is estimated to be above 90%. If so, as JP Morgan said, the S&P 500, which has lost 24.21% since the beginning of the year, is heading for a scenario with an additional 20% collapse.
Thus, out of the $100 that investors have invested in the stocks of the 500 largest U.S. companies, they will be able to get less than $56.
Already, the current losses on the S&P 500 are the second-largest since the 1930s, and a further drop in the index would make the losses to Wall Street investors a record, totaling several trillion dollars.
The price of bitcoin, of course, can not somehow not react to the movement of the U.S. stock market in the direction of such a scenario, but the question is how? Opinions diverge here. Stock prices on Wall Street, as well as any other financial assets measured in U.S. dollars, are pressured by the fact that the dollar index DXY is rising and is now at its highest since May 2002 (113 points).
This has led to the fact that even amid forecasts from the IMF and the World Bank about an impending global recession, the price of the troy ounce in trading on the New York Metal Exchange is rolling down. Now it is below the psychologically important landmark of $1700, though in March it was almost $2,000. The dollar value of gold has fallen 8.65 percent since the beginning of the year.
Thus, global investors often no longer perceive gold as a hedge against global inflation, including the depreciation of the U.S. dollar in its purchasing power (according to the DXY index the U.S. currency, on the contrary, strengthening . to a number of other currencies, primarily other reserve currencies). Whether bitcoin can become a hedge-asset for global investors against the risk of unwinding global inflation will become clear in the foreseeable future.